Fertility rate (2005-2010)
Children each woman.
Congo, Dem. Rep.:
"In a country there would no longer be people, who could enjoy a daily glass of wine and a beef steak for dinner"
Fertility rate (2005-2010)
"There are signs that Allah will bestow victory to Islam in Europe without swords, without guns, without conquest."
Thomas Malthus - Essay of PopulationIn 1798 Thomas Malthus published, anonymously, his sensationel work "An Essay on the Principle of Population. "He showed, that the population will always have a tendency to grow faster than the production of food. This will make the individuals standard of living become less and less, and eventually extensive famine will break out.
He demonstrated that in the "natural" human society is a contradiction between the sexual drive, the desire to have descendants, and the desire for increased living standards and more food. A contradiction, he believed, which was overlooked by Rousseau and other contemporary philosophers, who would liberate the individuals from the chains of the organized communities and create social conditions in accordance with the free nature of man.
Rousseau was a great inspiration to the French Revolution, and thus the liberal capitalist society, we know today.
Thomas Malthus argued that food production was limited by the existing arable area, the weather and the skills of the farmers. The population, however, would have a propensity to develop much more rapidly because of man's natural propensity for sex and family.
Hunger and disease will therefore necessarily reduce the number of people to a sustainable level. Any increase in the food production would only allow that many more people would be able to drag a life filled with hunger and poverty.
Malthus did not argue for contraception or forced child limitation. But following his arguments it is clear that birth control will be necessary in the really long run. It is quite obvious, that he did not believe that one can leave the growth of population to the "natural" inclinations of humans.
Malthus is often regarded as an extremely pessimistic doomsday prophet.
The Malthusian population catastrophe will not occur, because all peoples of the Earth naturaly will reduce their numbers, his opponents say. Just as it is described by "The Demographic Transitions Model".
The effect of DTM is clearly seen in Europe today, they say. Thanks to the welfare state and pensions arrangements parents do not have to rely on their children in old age. Therefore, it is no more necessary for them to get many children.
Women's liberation has made a career possible also for women, and therefore they are not interested in having many children.
Europe is just ahead in the development and a similar reduction in fertility of the very same causes will definitely happen all over the World, claim Malthus opponents.
Malthus has also been contradicted by the "Adaption-theory", which says that people will adjust to the new form of life in huge cities, surrounded by countless millions of other humans.
It will be a quite natural feeling to stay in man made surroundings only and never experience a forest or a green landscape. The singing of birds will never again be heard, and rap music will replace melancholy folk tunes.
Paul Ehrlich - The Population BombThe message of Paul Ehrlich's book "The Population Bomb" from 1972 is based on the same logic as that of Malthus's theory about the final catastrophic famine.
The planet has a well-defined size and contain final resources, whereas humans have drives and motivation to multiply themselves in endless quantities.
Therefore, there will come a time in the future, where the quantity of food, clean water and other resources, which will be available for each individual, will be so small, that it will lead to famine and mass deaths.
Overpopulation will be the cause of wars and environmental disasters, he predicted.
The essence of his book is illustrated with the following quote: "A cancer is an uncontrolled multiplication of cells; the population explosion is an uncontrolled multiplication of people. Treating only the symptoms of cancer may make the victim more comfortable at first, but eventually he dies - -often horribly. A similar fate awaits a world with a population explosion if only the symptoms are treated. We must shift our efforts from treatment of the symptoms to the cutting out of the cancer. The operation will demand many apparently brutal and heartless decisions. The pain may be intense. But the disease is so far advanced that only with radical surgery does the patient have a chance of survival"
As far as the author knows, Paul Ehrlich is still alive. It would be interesting to hear what he thinks about the upcoming climate conference in Copenhagen in December 2009. Does he think that it is useless symptom treatment?
Unlike Malthus, Erhlich stretched pretty much his neck forward with quite unambiguous predictions about, when these events would happen to occur.
He began his "The Population Bomb" in 1968 with the following line: "The battle to feed all of humanity is over.In the 1970's and the 1980's hundred millions will starve to death in spite of any crash program embarked upon now -"
The book's ending was also a rather unique prediction: "A general prediction can I do with certainty: The cost to feed yourself and your family will continue to rise. There may be slight variations in food prices, but the general trend will be upward."
Some see Paul Ehrlich as an alarmist and apocalyptic prophet.
He predicted really many disasters in the near future, both in his books and in various articles and interviews; disasters and misfortunes, that did not occur, as he predicted. He has been blamed much for this.
The famine, which he wrote would break out in the 1970s, failed to materialize.
Ehrlich had not imagined the "Green Revolution", which apparently has pushed the final famine far into an uncertain future.
Skilled farmers multiplied the yield per hectare by using new types of crops, fertilizers, insecticides, mechanization and irrigation.
Instead of famine, foods became cheaper and more plentiful than ever before.
In the 1980s, even occured an obesity "epidemic", especially in the US.
Long before Malthus's and Erlich's final famine occurs, human ingenuity will have invented something new, their opponents optimistic claim , as we have always have done throughout history.
A Defense of Malthus and EhrlichHuman history is thousands, yes, millions of years old. That means really not so much that Malthus and Erlich missed the target with a few centuries. "It happens always later, than we think", as Alan Greenspan said.
They have namely the logic on their side.
Our planet is just so big, and its resources are final. The population increases incessantly, as never before seen in human history. Sooner or later we will run our heads up against the ceiling, and it will hurt. It is a very basic logic that Julian Simon and Bjørn Lomborg can not evade, no matter how much they struggle and wriggle in the network of logic.
The future looks bleak, and even a vaste amount of television hours with optimistic statements about alternative energy and energy saving devices can not change this. Overpopulation is the biggest threat to the future of mankind. The exploding population in the world - doubled just since 1960 - has increased the effects of other problems such as global warming, the shrinking ozone layer, acid rain and so forth.
Congo, Dem. Rep.:
Sao Tome and Principe:
Soylent Green"Soylent Green" is a science fiction film from 1973. It is loosely based on the science fiction novel, "Make Room! Make Room!" by Harry Harrison. It describes a future dominated by huge overpopulation, unemployment, poverty and lack of all natural resources. All people look gray and unhealthy out.
In the year 2022 the population of New York alone has grown to forty million. Real food, as we know it today, is hardly eaten anymore. Genuine fruit, vegetables and meat are very difficult to find and very expensive. The huge population survives on various syntetic foods, including a product called Soylent Green.
The new product, Soylent Green, is marketed as a high-energy plankton product, far more nutrious than other syntetic food products.
Charles Heston plays the part of the Detective Robert Thorn, who lives in a small crowded apartment, which he shares with his friend, Sol Roth, an aging scientist and police investigator. They produce their own electricity with a pedal-driven generator.
Sol is so old that he can remember and tell about the time before the big environmental catastrophe, when people ate real food, real vegetables and real meat. His friend, however, regards all these stories from old the days as too imaginative.
Thorn is given the task to investigate the murder of a wealthy businessman. When he arrives in the victim's apartment, he immediately starts to search it. The rich man's house is full of all sorts of valuable things, such as real whiskey and real food. The apartment is equipped with something so as exclusive as hot water and soap, a luxury that the underpaid Detective, Robert Thorn, immediately takes advantage of.
He interrogates the murdered man's body guard and mistress, an attractive young prostitute of twenty-four years, named Shirl. They both explain that the body guard escorted Shirl on a shopping excursion at the time of murder.
He finds a report, "Soylent Oceanographic Survey Report, 2015 to 2019", which he brings home to his friend, Sol, for closer study.
As he interrogates the prostitute, Shirl, once again, he notes that she eats a glass with real strawberry jam. Such luxury is almost worth its weight in gold, and it indicates that the murdered man was a really extraordinary rich man.
Shirl says that in the days before the murder her friend had been deeply concerned about something. He had even visited a priest.
Thorn seeks out the priest, who initially denies any knowledge of the murdered man, but later admits that he has spoken with him. The priest finds it however, impossible to describe, what he said. Shortly after the priest is found murdered, apparently to prevent him from talking. Under a street riots somebody also try to kill Thorn, but with no succees, contrary Thorn kills his pursuer.
In the meantime Thorn's friend Sol has read the report from the "Soylent" group. The report reveals a terrible truth that Sol Roth is not able to live with. He decides to end his life and signs in at one of the governments suicide clinics, intended for the countless miserables, who do not find life worth living in this overcrowded World.
Thorn finds Sun's farewell letter. He hurries to the clinic, where the Sol's suicide process is in process. He persuades the staff to let him talk to his friend in his last minutes. He pleads Sol to tell him the truth about the murdered man and the "Soylent" group.
After his friend's death the detective Thorn sneaks down in the basement of the suicide clinic, where he observes, how the staff load corpses on renovations trucks.
He hide himself in a truck, and in this way he obtains access to a heavily guarded destruction facility.
He discovers that the seemingly destruction facility really is a fully automated process plant, which converts an endless stream of corpses to "Soylent Green" biscuits.
However the armed guards discover Thorn. He escapes after a gun fight, but gets seriously wounded. He seeks refuge in a cathedral filled with ragged, skinny and pale, homeless people with sallow skin. When the wounded and desperate detective makes his way through the gray and disheartened crowd, he shouts: "Soylent Green is people! We must stop them in some way. "
CIA World Factbook - fertility rates
Professor Kaj Sand Jensen says to Jyllands Posten: Overpopulation is the biggest climate problem 18-05-09. (danish)
Lars From wrote in Jyllands Posten 19/10/2009: Alarm over population growth Too many: Relief Organizations, environmental experts and people in poor countries recognize that the population growth is a bigger problem than climate change. (danish)
On "Boppo's blog is a longer quote from Ralf Pittelkow's book" My Life As a Dane": Increasingly Muslim Europe - Ralf Pittelkow - boppo-Blog.tv2 "Through a number of years I have been running up to say what I now say. It is really not because it is new, a good deal of people know it allready. But it is such a strong taboo that it largely has been kept out of main stream social debate. This despite the fact that this is one of the very great historical changes in the European societies and their cultural basis. - Europe is becoming increasingly Muslim. "(Page 300-303) (danish)
In politikken (newspaper) former editor of the Børsen (another newspaper), Jan Cortzen wrote: The Greatest greatest challenge our time We are discussing terrorism, climate and food crises - why it is a taboo to warn against over-population? (danish)
Morten Jensen Uhrskov reviews Karen Jespersen and Ralf Pittelkow's book: Islamister og naivister - et anklageskrift. - Nomos (pdf) Jespersen og Pittelkow writes: "Immigration is basicly positiv. A society will stall without immigration, which in many diferent ways can ad something new. Furthermore comes the humanitarian obligation to help people in need."
Morten Uhrskov comment to this: "It is obvious that Europe today would be a safer, a richer and a fundamentaly better place to live, if not the Muslim immigration had taken place. To say otherwise would be close to refusing responsibilities and in any case an expression of political correctness, which it is not nice to meet in a debate book, which otherwise puts a line of necessary things in its places." (danish)
See also Evolutionary Psychology and Peak Oil " A Malthusian inspired "heads up "for humanity. - by Dr. Michael E. Mills."
It is a huge site with numerous charts, pictures and links. These include also the phenomenon of sudden mass deaths among a population which has grown a lot, "overshoot". For example, reindeers on a small island, bacteria in a petri dish and the like. (Page can be slow to log in)
On the debate-page "The Oildrum Canada" is a very long and rather unbiased Talk about Peak Oil, etc. with many curves and figures: Peak Oil, Carrying Capacity and Overshoot: Population, the Elephant in the room. The debate opens: "At the root of all the converging crises of the World Problematique is the issue of human overpopulation. Each of the global problems, we face today, is the result of too many people using too much of our planet's finite, non-renewable resources and filling its waste repositories of land, water and air two overflowing. "(this page can also be extremely slow to open)
Also in "The Oildrum" is a very long discussion about global ecological crisis, with many good contribution: Six Steps to" getting "the global ecological crisis
View Peak Oil News - The Population Bomb The latest peak oil news, information resources and articles.
See also a review of the book: Modern Day Trojan Horse: The Islamic Doctrine of Immigration by Sam Solomon and Elias Al Maqdisi. On "American Thinker". The authors explains the migration of Muslims to Dar al-Harb, "the country of war", as a religious Islamic religious duty. They explain step by step, the 1400 years old conquest strategy.
A critique of Paul Ehrlich: Deconstructing The Population Bomb in a Canadian journal. It is not really a logical criticism, they write only that he did not invent the whole thing himselves.
A somewhat old statement of the Indian demographic problems with Muslims: The Demographic Siege by Koenraad Elst. But the problem had probably not less.
See a good long review of the science fiction novel of 1966, Make Room! Make Room! by Harry Harrison
An Indian contribution in Daniel Pipes blog in connection with a discussion "Europe is finished "(2006): The Muslim growth rate Worldwide: Muslims responding to Mullah's appeal for "More Muslims"
On the blog "Demography is Destiny" is a statement about Russia's possible Islamic future: A Muslim president of Russia?
On the page "Planck's Constant" "Bernie" has a contribution about: Europe is Declining yet its population is Increasing
In "Absolute Astronomy" Paul Ehrlich is presented and very much the criticism of him: The Population Bomb
In 1993 the U.S. "Foreign Affairs Magazine" brought an article by Samuel P. Huntington, entitled "The Clash of Civilizations?" Which predicted that the Cold War would be replaced by the clash of civilizations. The article triggered a major debate. He elaborated his views in a book, "The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order", which came in 1996.
We like to imagine our selves as part of a progressive cultural globalization, which will result in a Global Uni-culture that will draw the best from all the world's indigenous civilizations. In a not so distant future, we imagine, will young people in the whole world wear the same jeans, drink the same cola, eat the same pizza and listen to the same kind of international pop music. It would be quite natural, we think.
But Huntington has a different opinion. The meeting with the others will rather make us to appreciate our own culture, religion and history more, and this will set the agenda for future of international politics.
It is no coincidence that expatriate Danes often feel their national identity stronger than other Danes, who have lived their entire lives surrounded by fellow danes.
See Huntington's original article from 1993 in full length: (pdf) The Clash of Civilizations? - harvard.edu
or in: The Clash of Civilizations? - Bint Jbeil Frontier of our soul
Kasper Støvring writes: Why is Huntington so relvant - who has a better theory? - Nomos (danish)
See Nicolai Sennels scenario for World War III - the showdown between Civilizations: Kulturkløften (archive) JP Blogs - 3rd World War: How it will be (danish)
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